by Marc Roberts @MarcFRoberts Last week I used my Fantasy Trade Machine to look at how well the top 10 fantasy picks produced this season. If you missed the article you can check More »
by Marc Roberts @MarcFRoberts In no other fantasy sport do the top players matter more than they do in fantasy basketball. As an illustration here are the ESPN average auction values More »
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New Fantasy Hoops Insider Blog: Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and DraftStreet 3/21/14
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by Matt Smith @SmanSports There has been a lot of interest and discussion already around NBA Fantasy rankings for next season. So to coincide with the final Fantasy Hoops Podcast for the 2013-2014 season, More »
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by Marc Roberts @MarcFRoberts
Last week I used my Fantasy Trade Machine to look at how well the top 10 fantasy picks produced this season. If you missed the article you can check it out here. This week I am looking at the top five players who outperformed expectations this season. As a baseline I am using ESPN average auction dollars and comparing that amount to actual value produced this season (stats through April 16, 2014).
I’ve also included my Trade Machine Projections for next season for each player that I discuss. To know more about the Fantasy Trade Machine that I’ve created click here. If you are a web developer who would like to work with me to put this tool on the web for everyone to use, please contact me. (On twitter @MarcFRoberts)
1. Kyle Lowry – ESPN Average Auction Value: $3, Actual Value: $38
What Happened: Lowry was this season’s biggest barging, producing an average profit of $35 in standard rotisserie leagues. He significantly outperformed expectations in Points, Assists, and 3s. What is even more impressive is that as his shot attempts increased, so did his FG%, to a palatable 42%.What to Expect: 78 games is the most that he has played in the past five seasons. Also he is a free agent who could have a role change next year. However, as long as he remains in a similar role to the one he is in now, the Trade Machine projects him to hold onto most of his per game improvements. Factoring in injury risk, I’d feel comfortable paying around $30 for him next season if he is back with the Raptors or in a similar situation.
2. Trevor Ariza – ESPN Average Auction Value: $0, Actual Value: $25
What Happened: I haven’t heard much about Ariza’s remarkable improvements this season, but I think that is a mistake. He is another player who increased his shot attempts (and therefore points scored) and 3s, while also managing an increase to his FG% (now at an acceptable 45.5%). Ariza’s average draft value was $0, so he was likely a pick-up in your league, and as it turns out was the probably the best pick-up in your league this season.What to Expect: Will Otto Potter cut into his minutes next season? There certainly wasn’t any indication this season that Potter should, but teams don’t generally bury top 3 draft picks on the bench forever. Even in the same role I project Ariza to regress some, but if it looks like he will start next season, I would suggest spending in the $15 range for him.
3. Goran Dragic – ESPN Average Auction Value: $8, Actual Value: $33
What Happened: Dragic became an elite scorer in Phenoix’s surprisingly good offense this season. Having a guard shoot above 50% is very rare, especially if they also score over 20 points a game.What to Expect: The Trade Machine projects a similar season for Dragic next year, as his role on the team seems clear. The big question will be whether he can continue to score at such an efficient rate. Even with some regression (50.5% to 47.9% and 20.3 PPG to 17.8) I would still recommend spending $30 plus on Dragic next season.
4. Isaiah Thomas – ESPN Average Auction Value: $2, Actual Value: $27
What Happened: Thomas was underrated coming into the season, as I think the general fantasy community doesn’t understand what a positive impact he makes on FT%. So not only was he underpriced coming into the season, he also outperformed expectations in points, assists, and steals.What to Expect: As with others on this list, the only question I have is about his role. If the Kings bring him back as the starting point guard, I think he is easily worth spending $30 on next season. If he ends up with a new team, or the Kings bring in a new point guard, I would probably stay away.
5. DeAndre Jordan – ESPN Average Auction Value: $2, Actual Value: $25
What Happened: Jordan nearly doubled his rebounding projection, and blocked an additional shot per game. He is now elite at those two categories. He also brought his scoring up into an acceptable range. He FT% is still an abomination, but he doesn’t shoot enough of those to kill your team in the same way that Dwight Howard does.What to Expect: Like Dragic, his role on this team seems secure. I think the blocks are for real, but I’m not sure he can get to 14 rebounds per game again. I would recommend paying in the $15-$20 for him.
The next five:
These are the guys who were just outside the top five, but likewise probably had a significant impact on your fantasy league: Spencer Hawes, DeMar DeRozan, Paul Millsap, Gerald Green, and Thaddeus Young.
Check back next week for the five worst draft picks of the season.
Follow Marc on twitter @MarcFRoberts
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New Fantasy Hoops Insider Blog: Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and DraftStreet 4/11/13
by Doug Norrie @dailyfantasysr
I’m going to be honest, writing today’s NBA picks was about as hard as it’s been all season. With the number of different playoff considerations, teams benching guys, reduced minutes, etc. it’s difficult to parse out the value. I’m going to outline some solid plays for tonight and then you should keep your ear out for news coming in. Will the Pacers do a full benching again? Who will play? It’s so up in the air.
Jordan Farmar – FanDuel $5,300 DraftKings $
Man the Lakers have been the craziest DFS story of the year (possibly outside of GTD Dwyane Wade). Their revolving cast of characters carried a revolving value train that would provide insane upside in one game, only to be relegated to the bench/injured the next. Just nuts. Anyway, with Farmar back and Nash out, I think you can count on Jordan tonight.
D.J. Augustin – FanDuel $6,100 DraftKings $
The Bulls always play hard and Augustin has been scoring consistently lately. Detroit is a mess defensively and I see the Bulls taking advantage. Augustin, even in a sixth man role has been more than productive and like I said, the Bulls don’t have a gear other than fifth.
Trey Burke – DraftStreet $4,213
Tyreke Evans – FanDuel $7,300 DraftKings $
No Anthony Davis? No Eric Gordon? This should be Tyreke time. The operative word here is “should”. Tyreke has had these flashes of greatness and then long spells of mediocrity. Kind of like me with women. I want to believe he’ll go nuts against an OKC team that has it’s playoff destiny all but set. But it’s Reke. Who knows.
Anthony Morrow – FanDuel $4,800 DraftKings $
He’s been getting about thirty minutes a night and that should stick with the Pelican injuries. Morrow can pile up the points on the right night and I don’t think OKC will be bringing it’s A game tonight.
Jordan Crawford – FanDuel $3,700 DraftKings $
Will be a guy to keep an eye on tonight if there’s word on the starters’ minutes being reduced. If so, he’ll be handling the ball quite a bit.
James Johnson – FanDuel $3,800 DraftKings $
Should draw the start again with Prince out. James Johnson has long since been a DFSR favorite, back when we were punting him with impunity early in the season. No he gets Philly while in the starter role (presumably). We’ll take it.
Khris Middleton – FanDuel $5,000 DraftKings $
Funny to think about the Bucks as a team to count on tonight in terms of minutes. But they should be because they’ve been terrible all year long and have nothing to play for. Good. I hate Larry Drew. Middleton will get his 30+ minutes and should produce at these salaries.
Mike Dunleavy – FanDuel $5,100 DraftKings $
Again, at this time of year, we want guys/ teams we know are going to play hard and play minutes. Enter Mike D. The Bulls are so predictable when it comes to DFS it’s almost unfair. They are also crazy boring and have no real upside. So proceed with vanilla caution.
Zach Randolph – FanDuel $7,000 DraftKings $
Memphis is still in the playoff hunt and they are snagging Philly at just the right time. I like Z-Bo tonight as one of the few big money options out there who could stand to see fulll run if the game stays close. Philly, as we all know, hasn’t been watching their tutorials on defense. And while some things have been better in the short term, it’s all still pretty bad.
Jordan Hill – FanDuel $6,100 DraftKings $
Gasol is doubtful and Kaman is out meaning Hill still stands as one of the few big men on the Laker squad. His minutes still aren’t completely guaranteed (which seems insane) but he should play some tonight against the Warrior second team.
Al Jefferson – FanDuel $9,700 DraftKings $
I get the sense that the Bobcats would much rather play the Raptors than the Heat in the first round of the playoffs, meaning they’ll be trying in this one. The Celtics don’t have anyone to handle Al Jeff down low and I’m looking for him to post a monster tonight.
Jonas Valanciunas – FanDuel $5,800 DraftKings $
Just been annihilating people down low (and getting annihilated and then driving, too soon?). But we don’t care about off the field indiscretions do we? Nope. We can that he has the confidence from the coach to play large chunks of minutes and not get immediately benched if something goes wrong.
Who’d I miss today? I know there is someone(s). Let me know and if it is a clear whiff I’ll add him to the picks with some reader credit.